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Registros recuperados: 37
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3-D slope stability analysis: A probability approach applied to the nice slope (SE France) ArchiMer
Leynaud, Didier; Sultan, Nabil.
Recent geophysical and geotechnical data acquired on the Nice shelf to the east of the 1979 landslide source area, Suggest slow deformations processes which could lead to future catastrophic slope failure. According to these preliminary interpretations, it is of major interest to perform a slope stability evaluation to define the hazard and quantify the danger related to a probable instability on this slope. A probabilistic approach is proposed here using a modified version of the SAMU_3D model, a 3-D slope stability software recently developed by Sultan and others to account for complex geometry. The 3-D analysis is based on the upper bound theorem of plasticity developed by Chen and others. One of the main features of the original model is to allow...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Probabilistic analysis; Slope stability; Monte Carlo simulation; Shear zone.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00002/11290/7828.pdf
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An integrated simulation model to evaluate national policies for the abatement of agricultural nutrients in the Baltic Sea AgEcon
Hyytiainen, Kari; Ahtiainen, Heini; Heikkila, Jaakko; Helin, Janne; Huhtala, Anni; Iho, Antti; Koikkalainen, Kauko; Miettinen, Antti; Pouta, Eija; Vesterinen, Janne.
This study introduces a prototype model for evaluating policies to abate agricultural nutrients in the Baltic Sea from a Finnish national point of view. The stochastic simulation model integrates nutrient dynamics of nitrogen and phosphorus in the sea basins adjoining the Finnish coast, nutrient loads from land and other sources, benefits from nutrient abatement (in the form of recreation and other ecosystem services) and the costs of agricultural abatement activities. The aim of this study is to present the overall structure of the model and to demonstrate its potential using preliminary parameters. The model is made flexible for further improvements in all of its ecological and economic components. Results of a sensitivity analysis suggest that...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Ecosystem services; Nutrient abatement; Monte Carlo simulation; Recreation; Valuation; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49896
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An Operational Approach for Evaluating Investment Risk: An Application to the No-Till Transition AgEcon
Upadhyay, Bharat Mani; Young, Douglas L..
Roy's safety-first rule is used to provide measures popular with farmers of short and long term business risk associated with various no-till transition strategies over an investment horizon. The short run rule provided more sensitivity to inter-year financial risk than other commonly used criteria. Results revealed that speed of adoption influenced the probability of successful transition more than did the sequence of drill acquisition methods. Higher equity and larger farms had a greater chance of transition success. Slow acreage expansion with a custom or rental drill reduces risk until a no-till yield penalty is eliminated.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Investment risk; Monte Carlo simulation; No-till; Rent-purchase; Risk; Safety-first; Technology adoption; Transition strategy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12958
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Análise de risco do desempenho econômico de um sistema de recria de gado de corte em regime de pastejo rotacionado AgEcon
Simoes, Andre Rozemberg Peixoto; Moura, Altair Dias de.
The success of the agricultural systems is affected by several social, cultural and economical variables, which can restrict or nurture the development of the agribusiness. In this context, agricultural managers search for ways to improve production efficiency. This effort comprises the improvement of the managerial activities and decision making process. This research aimed to build a risk analysis framework, using different scenarios of economical analysis of an animal husbandry firm. The data used was collected from a rotational grazing system for beef cattle. The results suggest that the profitability of the system is low, and some of the risk scenarios presented negative profitability.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Economical analysis; Beef cattle; Scenarios; Monte Carlo simulation; Risk analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55309
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Assisting Whole-Farm Decision-Making Through Stochastic Budgeting AgEcon
Lien, Gudbrand D..
Stochastic budgeting is used to simulate the business and financial risk and the performance over a six-year planning horizon on a Norwegian dairy farm. A major difficulty with stochastic whole-farm budgeting lies in identifying and measuring dependency relationships between stochastic variables. Some methods to account for these stochastic dependencies are illustrated. The financial feasibility of different investment and management strategies is evaluated. In contrast with earlier studies with stochastic farm budgeting, the option aspect is included in the analysis.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Decision analysis; Whole-farm stochastic budgeting; Monte Carlo simulation; Real option; Farm Management.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24903
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Computer simulations for biological aging and sexual reproduction Anais da ABC (AABC)
STAUFFER,DIETRICH; OLIVEIRA,PAULO M.C. DE; OLIVEIRA,SUZANA MOSS DE; PENNA,THADEU J.P.; MARTINS,JORGE S. SÁ.
The sexual version of the Penna model of biological aging, simulated since 1996, is compared here with alternative forms of reproduction as well as with models not involving aging. In particular we want to check how sexual forms of life could have evolved and won over earlier asexual forms hundreds of million years ago. This computer model is based on the mutation-accumulation theory of aging, using bits-strings to represent the genome. Its population dynamics is studied by Monte Carlo methods.
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Parthenogenesis; Genome; Menopause; Testosterone; Monte Carlo simulation.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652001000100003
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CUSTO DE PRODUÇÃO DO ABACAXI ‘PÉROLA’ IRRIGADO EM CONDIÇÕES DE RISCO, NO ESTADO DA BAHIA. AgEcon
Pedreira, Ernani Macedo; Cardoso, Carlos Estevao Leite; Guerreiro, Mariana Sampaio Silva; Almeida, Otavio Alvares De; Souza, Luiz Francisco Da Silva.
O abacaxizeiro é uma planta de clima tropical, que apresenta crescimento adequado em grande parte das condições climáticas encontradas no Brasil, sobretudo na Bahia. No entanto necessita de chuvas bem distribuídas para não prejudicar seu crescimento e/ou desenvolvimento e, conseqüentemente, a produção. Este trabalho objetiva avaliar a viabilidade financeira do sistema de produção da cultura do abacaxi irrigado, em condições de risco. A metodologia utilizada consistiu no levantamento de dados primários, referentes aos vetores de preços dos insumos e dos produtos. Com base na matriz de coeficientes técnicos realizou-se a análise de rentabilidade em condições determinística e em condições de risco, utilizando-se o método de simulação de Monte Carlo. A partir...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Viabilidade econômica; Simulação Monte Carlo; Semi-árido; Economic viability; Monte Carlo simulation; Semi-arid; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/112695
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Economics of Meat Production from the Springbuck in the Eastern Cape Karoo AgEcon
Dlamini, Thula S.; Fraser, Gavin C.G..
The feasibility of springbuck based meat production in the EC Karoo was analysed through a stochastic budgeting model, while overtly taking cost and price risk into consideration. Monte Carlo simulation of a springbuck based meat production enterprise was used to quantify the risks that would be faced by springbuck ranchers. Springbuck ranching has been proven a viable alternative in the production of highly nutritious and healthy meat (venison) that is on high demand in European markets and more recently with a promising and growing local demand as well. The results indicate that in the Eastern Cape Karoo, springbuck ranching for meat production is a viable business. As the call for more environmentally friendlier rangelands utilisation economic systems...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Game ranching; Springbuck ranching; Meat production; Economic feasibility; Monte Carlo simulation; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96181
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Estimating State-Contingent Production Functions AgEcon
Rasmussen, Svend; Karantininis, Kostas.
The paper reviews the empirical problem of estimating state-contingent production functions. The major problem is that states of nature may not be registered and/or that the number of observation per state is low. Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate an artificial, uncertain production environment based on Cobb Douglas production functions with state-contingent parameters. The parameters are subsequently estimated based on different sizes of samples using Generalized Least Squares and Generalized Maximum Entropy and the results are compared. It is concluded that Maximum Entropy may be useful, but that further analysis is needed to evaluate the efficiency of this estimation method compared to traditional methods.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Maximum entropy; State-contingent; Uncertainty; Production; Monte Carlo simulation; Production Economics; C13; C15; D80.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24529
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Estimating the bioenergy potential of Pinus radiata plantations in Chile Ciencia e Investigación Agraria
Acuña,Eduardo; Espinosa,Miguel; Cancino,Jorge; Rubilar,Rafael; Muñoz,Fernando.
The bioenergy potential for electricity and ethanol production of Pinus radiata D. Don plantations in Chile was modeled, on a regional basis, using radiata pine plantations areas by age class. Wood basic density equations based on age and growing region, wood moisture content variability, and the effciency of a hypothetical power plant were used to estimate the amount of electricity produced by biomass at harvesting age including logging residues. Bioethanol yield was estimated at 275 L t-1 of dry biomass. The uncertainty of the bioenergy production were analyzed using probabilistic distribution functions and an estimate of 1.83 million ha-1 of radiata pine plantations by year 2030. Parameters considered for the uncertainty analyses included the rotation...
Tipo: Journal article Palavras-chave: Bioenergy; Bioethanol; Biomass; Radiata pine; Logging residues; Monte Carlo simulation.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-16202010000100009
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Financial and risk analysis of African mahogany plantations in Brazil Ciência e Agrotecnologia
Ribeiro,Andressa; Silva,Carolina Souza Jarochinski e; Ferraz Filho,Antonio Carlos; Scolforo,José Roberto Soares.
ABSTRACT Wood demand is increasing in quality and quantity, and economic studies are fundamental to analyze the feasibility of forest projects. These researches are in line with management and silvicultural studies, highlighting growth and yield modeling. This paper proposes an economic evaluation of implementation of African mahogany stands in Brazil under different perspectives of forest management. Data are from plantations ranging from 1.1 to 15 years old in different Brazilian regions. Financial analysis was undertaken using Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Equal Annual Equivalent (EAE) for a 20-year period considering three thinning management regimes (A - unthinned, B - one thinning at age 10 years remaining 150 trees ha-1...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Forest investment; Monte Carlo simulation; Financial risk..
Ano: 2018 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1413-70542018000200148
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General results for the Marshall and Olkin's family of distributions Anais da ABC (AABC)
BARRETO-SOUZA,WAGNER; LEMONTE,ARTUR J.; CORDEIRO,GAUSS M..
Abstract Marshall and Olkin (1997) introduced an interesting method of adding a parameter to a well-established distribution. However, they did not investigate general mathematical properties of their family of distributions. We provide for this family of distributions general expansions for the density function, explicit expressions for the moments and moments of the order statistics. Several especial models are investigated. We discuss estimation of the model parameters. An application to a real data set is presented for illustrative purposes.
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Marshall-Olkin extended distribution; Maximum likelihood estimation; Monte Carlo simulation; Rényi entropy.
Ano: 2013 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0001-37652013000100003
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How Market Power Changes in Monopoly: Using Lau’s Hessian Identities AgEcon
Yamaura, Koichi; Featherstone, Allen M..
This research examines market power using Lau’s Hessian Identity relationships based on the empirical properties of duality theory. We compare the performance of the proposed dual approach using Lau’s Hessian Identity relationships with the simple traditional dual approach.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Lau’s Hessian Identity; Monte Carlo simulation; Market Power; Monopoly; Marketing.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103932
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IST EINE REDUZIERUNG DES PFLANZENSCHUTZMITTELEINSATZES IM FREILANDGEMÜSEBAU MÖGLICH? ERGEBNISSE EINES BIOÖKONOMISCHEN SIMULATIONSMODELLS AgEcon
Dirksmeyer, Walter.
In field vegetable production pesticide a levels are very high although pest control technologies are known, which require much less pesticides than the commonly applied control technologies. A stochastic bio-economic simulation model is used to determine the net return derived from the application of different pest control technologies in carrot, leek and onion production. Following the concept of stochastic dominance efficient technologies can be identified. Results reveal that it is possible to reduce pesticide use levels in field vegetable production if alternative control technologies are applied. This is possible without losses in net return on farm level and without increasing risk of field vegetable production. Der Einsatz von...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Pflanzenschutz; Gemüsebau; Stochastische Simulation; Stochastische Dominanz; Pest control vegetable production; Bio-economic simulation; Monte Carlo simulation; Stochastic dominance; Farm Management.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7592
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Measurement uncertainty of dissolution test of acetaminophen immediate release tablets using Monte Carlo simulations BJPS
Romero,Daniel Cancelli; Lourenço,Felipe Rebello.
ABSTRACT Analytical results are widely used to assess batch-by-batch conformity, pharmaceutical equivalence, as well as in the development of drug products. Despite this, few papers describing the measurement uncertainty estimation associated with these results were found in the literature. Here, we described a simple procedure used for estimating measurement uncertainty associated with the dissolution test of acetaminophen tablets. A fractionate factorial design was used to define a mathematical model that explains the amount of acetaminophen dissolved (%) as a function of time of dissolution (from 20 to 40 minutes), volume of dissolution media (from 800 to 1000 mL), pH of dissolution media (from 2.0 to 6.8), and rotation speed (from 40 to 60 rpm). Using...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Acetaminophen tablets/dissolution test/measurement uncertainty; Monte Carlo simulation.
Ano: 2017 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1984-82502017000300613
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Milk Production Strategies for Farmers in the EU Under New Policy Regulations AgEcon
Fuchs, Clemens.
The recent reform of the agricultural policy in the EU provides totally new frame conditions for farmers. Main components of the reform are the decoupling of direct payments and particular for dairy farmers the reduction of intervention prices for milk products such as butter and SMP. The objective of this analysis is to develop strategies for dairy farmers considering the initial situation of four typical farm sizes at different productivity levels, debt-to-equity ratios and risk attitudes. The uncertainty of the price development for milk itself as well as for milk quotas will be covered using Monte Carlo simulations. Due to decreasing intervention prices profitability of milk production is endangered in most dairy farms and the values of assets will...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: CAP-Reform; Milk production; Optimal investment strategies; Monte Carlo simulation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24230
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Monte-Carlo based channel characterization for underwater optical communication ArchiMer
Gabriel, Chadi; Khalighi, Mohammad-ali; Bourennane, Salah; Leon, Pierre; Rigaud, Vincent.
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Beam scattering; Channel delay spread; Henyey-Greenstein model; Monte Carlo simulation; Underwater optical communication; Underwater wireless sensor network.
Ano: 2013 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00120/23110/20958.pdf
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Policies for the regulation of coexistence between GM and conventional crops AgEcon
Ceddia, M. Graziano; Bartlett, Mark; Perrings, Charles.
Pollen-mediated gene flow is one of the main concerns associated with the introduction of genetically modified (GM) crops, since growers of GM varieties normally do not take into account its possible impact on conventional and organic growers therefore generating negative externalities. Should a premium for non-GM varieties emerge on the market, 'contamination' with GM pollen would generate a revenue loss for growers of non-GM varieties. The existence of such externalities has led the European Union (EU) to put forward the concept of coexistence in order to guarantee farmers' freedom to plant both conventional and GM varieties without generating economic losses to conventional farmers. The first part of this paper develops a simple economic model analysing...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Coexistence; Pollen-mediated gene flow; Monte Carlo simulation; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44193
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Prueba de bondad de ajuste para la distribución poisson basada en el índice de dispersión de fisher. Colegio de Postgraduados
Bravo Hernández, Faustino.
Considerando el Índice de Dispersión de Fisher se estableció una Prueba de Bondad de Ajuste, que permite afirmar con cierta confiabilidad que los datos en cuestión se distribuyen de acuerdo a la Distribución Poisson. Para la realización de está, se determinaron sus propiedades, mediante el uso de la Teoría Asintótica y la Simulación de Monte Carlo. Se concluye que la Potencia de la Prueba propuesta, tanto para los diferentes tamaños de muestra, como para los diferentes niveles de significancia, son mayores que las de las pruebas de bondad de ajuste consideradas como comparación en este estudio. Por lo tanto se demuestra que es mejor la Prueba de Bondad de ajuste para la distribución Poisson basada en el Índice de Dispersión de Fisher. _______________...
Palavras-chave: Indice de Dispersión de Fisher; Prueba de Bondad de Ajuste; Distribución Poisson; Teoría Asintótica; Simulación de Monte Carlo; Potencia de la Prueba; Fisher's dispersion index; Goodness of fit test; Poisson distribution; Asymptotic theory; Monte Carlo simulation; Power of a test; Estadística; Maestría.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/1686
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Pruebas de bondad de ajuste de bootstrap para la distribución log-gamma generalizada. Colegio de Postgraduados
Gutiérrez González, Eduardo.
Este trabajo trata sobre las pruebas de bondad de ajuste para la distribución log-gamma generalizada. El estudio se lleva a efecto siguiendo los pasos de las pruebas bootstrap de bondad de ajuste. El trabajo se realiza en 4 capítulos, los dos primeros muestran un desarrollo analítico detallado sobre la distribución log-gamma y sus propiedades, mientras que en los dos últimos capítulos se hace el desarrollo por simulación del tamaño y potencia de la prueba En el desarrollo analítico se formulan y demuestran varios resultados relacionados con la existencia y unicidad de tres estimadores para el parámetro de forma de la distribución log-gamma generalizada en su forma estándar. Además se realiza un estudio analítico detallado sobre el comportamiento asintótico...
Palavras-chave: Distribución log-gamma generalizada; Parámetro de forma; Pruebas de bondad de ajuste; Pruebas de bootstrap; Simulación Monte Carlo; Generalized log-gamma standard distribution; Shape parameter; Goodness of fit tests; Bootstrap test; Monte Carlo simulation; Doctorado; Estadística.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/92
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